
Bruce Levine, of ESPNChicago.com, is reporting that Matt Capps and the Cubs share a heavy mutual interest in each other. Though the sensationalized headline of, “Capps love Cubs, but market is hot“ doesn’t mean anything (except perhaps an impending kickback by Capps’ agent to Levine), I am left with no choice but to ask…
Five Questions About Matt Capps:
1. Wouldn’t signing Matt Capps just be Jim Hendry’s 2010 attempt at reliving the Kevin Gregg experiment?
No. Matt Capps could put up the same exact numbers as Kevin Gregg did last year (4.72 ERA, 23 Saves, 7 Blown Saves, etc.) and it wouldn’t be near the same level of mistake that Hendry made in trading for Gregg last year. Gregg was part of a larger series of deals that cost the Cubs Mark DeRosa, Kerry Wood, and Jose Ceda. The decision making behind those deals was flawed. The returning parts of Gregg and Bradley did nothing but hurt the Cubs. Matt Capps would only cost the Cubs money, and not that much of it, in the scheme of things.
2. Doesn’t Matt Capps suck?
Again, no. Or, well, at least, “not really.” Capps’ 2009 season, though horrible, doesn’t seem to represent the pitcher he had historically proven to be. For example:
: Capps’ BABIP skyrocketed to .370, after consecutive years in the low .270’s, and a career average below .300 (including last years debacle).
: Capps’ HR/FB rate jumped to 13.5% after not even touching 7% in the two previous years. It also jumped while his LD and FB percentages declined by demonstrable amounts.
: Capps’ K/BB rate plummeted even though his K/9 reached a career high (7.62) and his strikes thrown percentage was right around what it had been during the rest of his career.
Going into the 2009 season Capps’ was sporting the following career line:
25 Years Old
IP: 217.1
ERA: 3.06
WHIP: 1.06
K/9: 6.75
K/BB: 5/1
HR/9: .91
3. Okay, so what the hell happened?
Bad luck (based on the ridic BABIP), decreased control (as evidenced by his higher walk rate), and overuse (the Pirates trotted him out to the mound a combined 161 times in 2006/2007) all seem to have played a role.
On top of all those, as noted in this Fan Graphs column, a big reason might have been the decreased effectiveness of Capps change up. The theory being that the decreased velocity difference between Capps’ fastball and change negated the ability for either pitch to be successful. The same could be said about the decreased velocity difference between his fastball and slider, which accounted for almost 90% of the pitches Capps threw last year.
4. Should the Cubs sign Matt Capps?
I don’t think it would hurt. Capps, if willing to take the role, would be a good rightie setup guy to help solidify the bullpen. If his signing comes at the expense of getting help somewhere else though, I say pass. If it comes with the expectation (by him or the Cubs management) that he closes, I say pass.
When it comes down to it, I think all signs point to Capps being better next year than he was last year. If he gets close to returning to his 2006 and 2007 form he will be a steal for whatever team gets him. If the Cubs can be that team, why not?
5. Can Matt Capps complete a sweaty fist bump?
Yes. The picture above depicts just that.